Hey folks, it’s wilhelmGW co. here with a quick update on today’s building permits and housing starts report from the Census Bureau. The numbers for July are out, and while there’s a bit of a mixed bag, one trend is jumping out at me like a warning siren: single-family building permits have been sliding for four straight months leading up to this slight uptick. Let’s break it down. Single-family permits edged up 0.5% in July to an annualized rate of 870,000, snapping that four-month losing streak. But before we pop the champagne, remember that streak took us from 992,000 in February all the way down to 866,000 in June—a clear sign of cooling in the housing market. Overall permits dipped 2.8%, dragged down by multifamily weakness. What really has me concerned? This kind of four-month consecutive decline in single-family permits hasn’t been seen since the depths of the 2008 housing crisis and the Great Recession. Back then, it was the start of a brutal downturn that hammered home values, builders, and the broader economy. Are we heading for a repeat? High interest rates, affordability issues, and economic uncertainty are already putting the brakes on buyer demand and builder confidence. Housing starts did bounce back 5.2% overall to 1.428 million, with single-family starts up 2.8% to 939,000. That’s a positive note, but permits are the leading indicator—they tell us what’s coming down the pipeline. If this weakness persists, we could see tighter inventory and even more pressure on prices. These trends could shift quickly, but ignoring the parallels to ’08 isn’t wise. Stay tuned for more updates—drop your thoughts in the comments! – wilhelmGW wilhelmgw.blog | Serving Southern California]